Emmy Predictions 2011: Who Will Win?

/ September 14, 2011

2011 Emmy Noms
Check out the full list!
'Lights' Gets Emmy Love
It (finally) gets Best Drama nomination!
Jon Hamm Suits Up!
The 'Mad Men' star looks good no matter what!
The 2011 Emmy Awards are only a couple of days away. Which means its time for Celebuzz to peer into its crystal ball and guess which shows and stars will walk away winners on Sunday evening.

Will it be another Mad Men sweep? Will The Office star Steve Carell finally win? Or will it be a night of upsets?

Below, check out our comprehensive Emmy predictions in all of the major categories.

Best Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire
Friday Night Lights
Mad Men
Game of Thrones

Mad Men has triumphed in this category for three-consecutive years, and with 19 nominations heading into Sunday’s telecast, odds are it’ll win again. But watch out for HBO’s Boardwalk Empire, which nearly swept last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys, winning a whopping seven trophies. Is this a sign of more to come? Maybe. For now, we’ll stick with the odds-on favorite, Mad Men.

Best Comedy Series

The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family

The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock

Though its second season wasn’t as consistent as its first, expect Modern Family to win this one in a cakewalk. Sorry, Glee fans. We also wouldn’t mind if NBC’s breakout series Parks and Recreation nabbed the trophy either. Just saying!

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Tim Olyphant, Justified

This will likely come down to a two-horse race between Jon Hamm and Steve Buscemi. Hamm has a number of factors going for him; he’s never won before, and his submission tape, The Suitcase, was the best episode of the season, if not the entire series. Buscemi, meanwhile, has the advantage of being on a new and buzz-worthy show, and that momentum could ultimately swing in his favor. In the end, though, if voters actually watch Hamm’s episode, we have a tough time believing the Emmy will go to anybody else.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mireille Enos, The Killing

Like Hamm, Elisabeth Moss was stellar in The Suitcase, and that episode alone could earn them both Emmys the way Whitecaps won Emmys for The Sopranos’ Edie Falco and James Gandolfini in 2003. Unfortunately for Moss, she’s up against Good Wife star Julianna Margulies, who somehow lost Kyra Sedgwick last year. (Seriously, WTF?) Margulies also submitted her best episode of the season, In Sickness, in which she kicks Chris Noth out of her house, then has to tell her kids she’s separating from their father. That emotional scene should be enough for Emmy voters to correct their mistake from last year.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Louis C.K., Louie
Steve Carell, The Office
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Will Win: The sentimental factor worked for Sarah Jessica Parker in 2004, and it should work for Steve Carell this year thanks to his emotional farewell episode. Sure, there’s a chance that voters could throw us a curveball and give to to someone like, say, Louis C.K., but it’s hard to bet against Carell, who has never won an Emmy for The Office.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope

Will Win: Though cancer isn’t exactly the funniest subject matter in the world, people really seemed to take to Laura Linney’s performance on The Big C, which should help Showtime to secure its third-consecutive victory in this category.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Walton Goggins, Justified
John Slattery, Mad Men
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age

Will Win: With last year’s winner, Breaking Bad’s Aaron Paul, out of the way, it’s anybody’s game. Leading the way is Mad Men’s John Slattery, who, like the rest of his co-stars, has yet to win an Emmy. Standing in his way: Alan Cumming, whose role as fast-talking political strategist Eli Gold on The Good Wife was practically designed to win Emmys. In the event of an upset, look for Game of Thrones’ Peter Dinklage to take home the gold, but we’re sticking with Cumming for now.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Margo Martindale, Justified
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Will Win: The Good Wife’s Archie Panjabi shocked everyone when she won in this category last year, and there’s a good chance she might win again this year. But we think voters will pull another Emmy shocker and award Margo Martindale instead, whose performance on Justified was one of the most critically acclaimed of last season.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Chris Colfer, Glee
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two And A Half Men

Will Win: All four of the Modern Family men were nominated this year, so it will likely come down to who submitted the best tape. In that case, expect the Emmy to go to Ty Burrell, who was consistently funny all season long. If the Modern men split the vote, that could leave the door open for Chris Colfer, who gave an emotional performance last season on Glee, or Men of a Certain Age’s Andre Braugher, who has a long-standing history of success with the Emmys.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Julie Bowen,Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofia Vergara,Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

Will Win: Expect this to be a close race between last year’s winner, Jane Lynch, and Emmy icon Betty White. In a coin toss, we’re going with Betty White, because, well, when is it smart to bet against her?