New York Times Offers Up Odds Of Celebrity Splits & Lasting Marriages

By: / March 14, 2012

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The New York Times is reporting there may be a math equation to celebrity splits. Statistical expert Garth Sundem claims that he can predict the longevity of a marriage in Hollywood. Back in 2006, the Sundem/Tierney Unified Celebrity Theory correctly predicted the demise of celeb couples Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher; Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock; and Britney Spears and Kevin Federline.

He also predicted that Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner as well as Matt Damon and Luciana Barroso would still be together, and he was right. So what is he predicting now as far as splits and long lasting love goes? His predictions may surprise you…

“This is a major improvement in the equation,” Garth told the Times. “It turns out that overall fame doesn’t matter as much as the flavor of the fame. It’s tabloid fame that dooms you.”

The stats guru predicts that Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes will split, and highly advises that Jessica Simpson and Britney Spears put off getting married. He estimates TomKat has a 60% chance of lasting five years together, and only 10% of lasting 15 years. 

However, Beyonce Knowles and Jay-Z‘s stats are a lot better. Garth thinks they have a 79% chance of staying together for five years and a 55% chance of still being married 15 years from now. 

He’s also optimistic about Kate Middleton and Prince William‘s longevity, saying they have an 89% chance of celebrating a fifth anniversary and a 71% chance of being together in 15 years. 

How does he come up with this stuff? The Times reads: 

“Garth’s new analysis shows that it’s the wife’s fame that really matters. While the husband’s NYT/ENQ ratio is mildly predictive, the effect is so much weaker than the wife’s that it’s not included in the new equation. Nor are some variables from the old equation, like the number of previous marriages and the age gap between husband and wife.”

What do you think? Do you agree with the Times‘ celebrity splits predictions? Sound off in the comments!