Emmys 2012: Sizing Up the Best Comedy Series Nominees (ANALYSIS)

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For the last two years, the Best Comedy Series category has been dominated by one show: Modern Family.

Chances are, with a whopping 14 nominations heading into Sunday's ceremony, the hit ABC comedy will triumph yet again.

But will it be an easy victory?

Maybe not. In fact, for the first time ever, Modern Family faces some relatively strong competition from big-name shows like The Big Bang Theory to, yes, the zeitgeist HBO series Girls.

Of course, we won't actually know who will win until a name is read on Sunday -- but that doesn't mean we can't speculate, anyway.

Below, get the rundown on the six shows nominated for Best Comedy Series to find out which shows have a chance to win and which, well, don't.

The Big Bang Theory: It's a beloved show, both among voters and TV audiences, so if the Academy is sick of Modern Family and wants to honor another network comedy, this would be the place to go. Chances: Good

Curb Your Enthusiasm: Larry David's much-loved comedy, which has yet to triumph in this category, will once again go empty-handed; the competition is just too strong. Chances: Pretty, pretty weak.

Girls: File this one under, "You never know." Sure, it only has one season under its belt. But in just eight episodes, it has generated more press, arguments and praise than any other show in this category. As such, it could pull off a jaw-dropping upset the same way Sex and and the City did in 2000. Chances: Seriously, you never know.

Modern Family: It's the most-nominated show of the lineup, and it already has two-consecutive wins under its belt. A betting man would be wise to predict a three-peat. Chances: Very Strong

30 Rock: Once an Emmys darling, 30 Rock has since become a bit of an afterthought; it hasn't won a single trophy in two years. Expect a similar event to occur on Sunday -- at least here in the Comedy Series category. Chances: Weak

Veep: Although Veep has the potential to become a real Emmys powerhouse in the next couple of years, the newbie HBO comedy feels too fresh to pull off a surprise win here. Look for star Julia Louis-Dreyfus to triumph in the Comedy Series Actress category, instead. Chances: Minimal

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