Tell Us Who You Think Will Win Big on Oscar Night
This year's Best Picture race is incredibly tight, but it looks like it pretty much comes down to either American Hustle or 12 Years a Slave. Hustle took the early lead, nearly sweeping the New York Film Critics Circle and taking home top honors at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. However, that momentum seems to have shifted in 12 Years a Slave's favor with wins from the Producers Guild and the American Film Institute.
Robert's Prediction: 12 Years a Slave
A Best Picture/Best Director split is still fairly rare but it looks almost certain this year as Gravity director Alfonso Cuarón looks to be a shoe-in to take home the Oscar for Best Director.
Robert's Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
If there's going to be an Oscar night upset, look for it to happen in this category, which looks to me like the category with the highest potential for a surprise. Matthew McConaughey has been taking home awards all season. But Chiwetel Ejiofor and Leonardo DiCaprio also delivered phenomenal performances and certainly have the potential to pull off an upset win. Then there is Bruce Dern who is nominated for only his second time, despite a five decade career in Hollywood. His story, in addition to a powerhouse performance in Nebraska, could draw votes as well.
Robert's Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Cate Blanchett has been the clear front-runner since Blue Jasmine came out in August. Her performance was, far and away, the year's best. Then new debate about past accusations of sexual abuse against Woody Allen looked to possibly derail Blanchett's path to Oscar. However, Dylan Farrow initially made her accusations against Allen in 1992; since then he has been nominated for 9 Academy Awards and won one. If the Academy hasn't shied away from nominating Allen, they probably won't shy away from awarding Blanchett.
Robert's Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor
This one is almost certainly Jared Leto's to lose. He's won nearly every award all season, with the exception of a BAFTA snub. It's difficult to imagine a scenario in which Leto doesn't take home an Oscar as well.
Robert's Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
This award, like Best Picture, comes down to Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle and Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave. The Academy is typically skittish about awarding newcomers, like Nyong'o, and Lawrence had early momentum with wins at the New York Film Critics Circle and the Golden Globes. However, that momentum has shifted in Nyongo'o's favor, with her win at the SAG Awards and her transformation into a general media darling. And for what it's worth, Nyong'o gave a better performance than Lawrence.
Robert's Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay
In my personal opinion, Her is a beautiful film and deserved nominations for Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson and perhaps even Amy Adams. In terms of cold hard facts, Her's phenomenal screenplay is getting a lot of love on the awards circuit this season, including wins at the Golden Globes and the Writers Guild of America Awards. Granted, the film does feel a little, let's say, young for the Academy and it wouldn't be a total surprise to see American Hustle win either.
Robert's Prediction: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay
Thanks to the film, Soloman Northup's memoir (on which the film is based) is going to be taught in schools now. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which John Ridley's script doesn't win.
Robert's Prediction: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film
Hahahahahaha, you're kidding, right? It's Frozen.
Robert's Prediction: Frozen