Remember when the Best Screenplay Oscar went to Matt Damon and Ben Affleck and it all seemed like some kind of bizarre fluke? These two handsome twenty-somethings had written and co-starred in a heartfelt and often humorous drama at a time when “indie” was all the rage. But had you laid a bet that the tall one from Reindeer Games would prove to be a phenomenally talented, consistently Oscar-caliber writer/director in his own right, Vegas bookies would likely not have given you the odds. Flash forward past the emotionally gripping Gone Baby Gone, past the intense and character-driven heist film The Town, and settle on the true story of Argo. A tale of several diplomats stranded in Iran during a time of fiery revolution, Argo is also the story of the fake Hollywood movie that was imagined as a cover to facilitate their escape. Expertly crafted and finely performed, Argo proves that Affleck is three-for-three in award-caliber filmmaking. Chances of winning: Strong.